Middle East Focus: Trends Worth Your Trade Strategy

UAE: E-Grocery, Sustainability and Mega-Retail Investments

• The UAE’s online grocery market is booming – expected to hit USD 38.6 million by 2025, with a 5.7% CAGR to 2029 and 15% of grocery sales happening online.
• Sustainability moves are real: Lulu Group now runs its delivery fleet on biodiesel made from used cooking oil—a green shift with economic edge.
• Majid Al Futtaim has committed AED 5 billion (USD 1.36 billion) to expand Mall of the Emirates, underlining retail infrastructure confidence in Dubai’s future..
  Sources: GourmetPro, Times of India, Reuters

Saudi Arabia: Vision-Driven Hypergrowth and Policy Levers

• Grocery retail in KSA is highly fragmented—only 13% shop at discount grocers, but 55% say they would if available. Nearly 93% express interest in chains like Lidl or Aldi entering Saudi.
• A new retail reform bans tobacco, dates, meat, fruits and vegetables being sold in small neighbourhood stores ("baqalas") under 100 m², promoting modern trade formats.
• Saudi’s online grocery market was valued at USD 1.54 billion in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 15.9% through 2033.
• Notably, spending intentions vary by region—14–21% in Riyadh/Jeddah plan to cut grocery spend vs 13–17% in smaller cities—highlighting value-driven preferences.
  Implication: Align with value-led private label ranges, scale digital presence, and source flexible formats for smart buyers.
  Sources: Oliver Wyman, Fitch Solutions, IMARC Group, Oliver Wyman Survey

 India: GST Cuts Kick Off Consumer Spike

India just slashed GST across staples like biscuits, noodles, coffee and butter expecting a 10–15% price drop. Simultaneously, sectors like FMCG, grocery and quick-service restaurants are gearing up for a resurgence in volumes. Why it matters: Retailers and exporters eyeing India can expect demand to rebound sharply especially for desi staples and imported items that benefit from duty relief.

US: Discount, Consolidation and Store Shakeups

Trader Joe’s is expanding fast, launching 7 new stores now with plans to reach 30 new locations in 2025. Aldi remains aggressive too, converting Winn-Dixie and Harveys stores into its own and hitting expansions across Florida and beyond. Meanwhile, beloved regional chains like Piggly Wiggly are folding amid polarisation toward big-box powerhouses. Takeaway for global suppliers: Your path to US shelf presence now runs increasingly through bigger value-driven banners, so pitch discounter-tailored offerings to win fast traction.

Europe & UK: Co-op Betting on Value, Digital and Rapid Store Buildup

In the UK, the Co-operative Group posted a fivefold profit surge, is locking in prices for members and planning 120 new stores in 2025. Digital is booming too with online grocery sales jumping 46 percent. Insight: Value, loyalty and omnichannel convenience are the pillars winning the European grocery race today.

Global Trend Radar: What's Shaping Grocery Across Borders

Fresh is Forever: Shoppers rate produce, deli and meat as high-growth priorities. 9 in 10 say fresh makes them happy. Grocers leaning into meal kits, optimised supply chains and retail-ready packaging will lead.

Omnichannel is Baseline: Grocery e-commerce is mature but still growing like US platforms seeing 10 billion dollars in January sales, up 16.6 percent year-on-year.

Private Label Gets Premium: Half of global shoppers say they are buying more store brands than ever. In Europe, private label already holds 39.1 percent of grocery sales and is expected to reach around 40–42 percent by 2030.

Health, Wellness and Ready-to-Heat: Consumers especially Gen Z are pushing for protein-rich, low-calorie, clean options. Ready-to-eat meals are also booming with over 54 percent purchasing them monthly.

Food Inflation in Check: USDA predicts food-at-home prices up around 2.2 percent in 2025 while food-away should rise around 3.9 percent. Eggs and beef will remain volatile.

The Gulfood Advantage: Where Global Trade Connects

Gulfood has evolved from the world’s largest food & beverage sourcing event into the industry’s most critical strategic platform. It’s where you can:

• Meet the Buyers Driving Change: Connect with the procurement teams from discount retailers, premium chains, and e-commerce giants who are shaping these very trends.
• Source Disruptive Innovation: Discover the ingredients, technologies, and packaging solutions that will define the next generation of products.
• Future-Proof Your Supply Chain: Forge partnerships with producers and logistics experts building resiliency into the heart of their operations.

Your network is your net worth. Build it here: www.gulfood.com