“Beef. It’s What’s for Dinner.”

That trademarked slogan was first used to help boost the American cattle industry in the 1990s, but is just as relevant today — as record-high prices for the food staple have failed to shake consumer demand, which stands at its highest in at least 20 years.

That resilient demand belies survey data that show consumers remain downbeat about the economic outlook, while overall sentiment remains well below pre-COVID levels despite a recent uptick.

Beef is “nutrient-dense, culturally rooted and versatile — from burgers and barbecue, to pot roasts and porterhouse steaks,” said Conner Hackett, general manager at family-owned and -operated Stemple Creek Ranch, based in Marin County, Calif. “Its wide pricing spectrum, from budget-friendly ground beef to premium cuts, has traditionally made it accessible across all income levels.”

“But 2025 is different,” Hackett told MarketWatch.

“Drought, inflation, labor shortages and market instability” have led to a long-term inventory decline, while land, feed, labor and processing costs have skyrocketed, said Hackett. “It’s a full-system stress test, and that pressure is being felt across the supply chain.”

Prices for beef across the country have climbed sharply on the back of those cattle supply issues, but that hasn’t had much of an impact on demand.

The U.S. city average retail price for a pound of 100% ground beef was at $6.12 in July — the highest on record, based on data going back to 1984, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s up 11.8% from a year ago.

All cattle and calves inventory in the United States was estimated at 86.1 million head on Jan. 1 of this year — the lowest since 1951, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which releases its next biannual report on July 25. The head count fell from 87.2 million in 2024.

Strength in demand despite all of that harkens back to comments Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made regarding a disconnect between what consumers say and what they actually do, in terms of spending.

Summer is grilling season and beef demand is seasonally high, said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics — suggesting that record-high payrolls and wages may be playing a role in boosting demand as well.

Still, he could not come to any sort of conclusion as to whether “high beef demand during a season with typically high beef demand can prove or disprove anything about consumer sentiment one way or another.”

‘Resilient’ demand

While the rise in retail beef prices itself was largely expected given the tightening supply-and-demand situation, the “resiliency” of U.S. consumer demand for high-priced beef was not, particularly given continued inflation across the board, said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.

Potential for a rise in unemployment fed expectations that consumers would shift to buying less expensive protein sources, he said. That doesn’t appear to be the case, however — “at least not yet,” Newsom noted — as weekly jobless claims have not grown much and monthly jobs reports have been stable over the spring and early summer.

In 2024, total beef disappearance in the U.S. — defined as the total amount of beef used in the domestic market on a carcass-weight basis — was at 28.7 billion pounds, according to the USDA. That’s the highest, based on USDA data, going back to 2004.

On a per-capita basis, the USDA estimated beef disappearance at 59.1 pounds for 2024. It forecasts that figure to remain at the same level for 2025, and predicts a decline to 56.4 pounds per capita in 2026.

Stemple Creek Ranch’s Hackett said that at his company — which sells grass-fed beef and lamb and pastured pork direct to consumers, as well as to local grocery stores and restaurants — overall sales are up year over year. “Sales are up even though prices have risen,” he said.

Beef demand remains strong, he added, and many consumers are “reprioritizing where they put their dollars” — choosing to spend on “food they trust and producers they believe in.”

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